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10:00 AM Retirement Mistake (...Don’t Do This)

Posted April 09, 2025

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

10:00 AM Retirement Mistake (...Don’t Do This)

At 10:00 a.m. on Monday the stock market looked like a crime scene – blood red across the board.

Tech was tanking, the indexes were down big, and the panic was intensifying.

That’s when I got the text from my friend Hannah:

“I think I’m pulling all my money out of the market. I’ll just wait for this crash to finish and buy back in at lower prices.”

Classic move. Totally understandable – and yet totally dangerous.

I get it. When it feels like the financial world is falling apart, stepping aside feels rational.

But here’s the thing: the market doesn’t reward safety – it rewards staying power.

And trying to sidestep every downturn is one of the quickest ways to derail long-term wealth.

I told Hannah what I’ll tell you now: timing the market sounds easy – but it’s nearly impossible in practice.

Here’s the Problem with Perfect Timing

The market doesn’t ring a bell at the bottom, and it doesn’t send out an alert when it’s safe to come back in.

History shows us that the best days in the market usually happen during the worst times – right in the middle of a crash or immediately after.

Data from J.P. Morgan shows that if you were fully invested in the S&P 500 from 2003 to 2023, your annualized return would’ve been around 9.7%.

But if you missed just the 10 best days in the market over that 20-year period, your return dropped to just 5.6%.

Miss the best 20 days? You’re looking at a return closer to 2%.

Miss the best 30? Now you’re negative.

Here’s the kicker: many of those “best days” happened within days – sometimes hours – of the worst ones.

In other words, if you sell after a big drop to wait for a better entry, there’s a very real chance you’ll miss the bounce when it comes.

When I told Hannah about this, she paused.

Like most of us, she didn’t want to lose money.

But avoiding short-term loss often means risking long-term growth.

The truth is, volatility is the price you pay for long-term returns.

You don’t get the 10% average returns of the stock market without sitting through the 10%, 20%, or even 30% drawdowns that show up from time to time.

It’s uncomfortable – but it’s normal.

Timing the market means you have to be right twice:

  1. When to get out
  1. When to get back in

Most investors can’t even get it right once.

What to Do Instead

If the market is stressing you out, it doesn’t mean you need to panic and hit the eject button.

It might mean you need to revisit your asset allocation, your cash buffer, or your time horizon.

Investing should match your real-world goals – not your real-time emotions.

As I told Hannah, the best course of action during rough markets is usually to stay the course, maybe even add to positions if you can.

That’s how wealth is built – not by dodging every downturn, but by surviving them and staying in long enough to benefit from the rebound.

Because one day – maybe even the next day after a big drop – the market will turn.

And the people who bailed out may be watching from the sidelines, wondering how they missed it.

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