
Posted April 11, 2025
By Davis Wilson
An Urgent Question From Warren Buffett
Here’s a short quiz…
If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef?
Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices?
These questions, of course, answer themselves.
But now for the final exam…
If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period?
Many investors get this one wrong.
Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall.
In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the "hamburgers" they will soon be buying.
This reaction makes no sense.
Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise.
Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.
Warren Buffett posed this exact “quiz” to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in his 1997 letter.
More than 25 years later, it feels especially relevant.
As stock prices whipsaw higher and lower, many investors today are feeling rattled.
Major indexes are well off their highs. Fear is rampant. Headlines are grim.
But as Buffett pointed out so clearly back then, falling prices are not a reason to panic – they’re a reason to get excited, especially for long-term investors.
Whether you're in the wealth-building phase of your life or already retired, market downturns still present opportunity – not just risk.
For those still accumulating assets, it means buying more shares at lower prices.
And for retirees, it’s a chance to rebalance into high-quality businesses at more attractive valuations, potentially boosting long-term income and portfolio resilience.
A falling market doesn’t have to mean falling confidence.
With the right mindset – and a focus on fundamentals – it can be a time to strengthen your financial position by buying shares of high-quality companies now on sale.
Think about the current environment: Some of the world’s best businesses – names with strong cash flows, wide moats, and healthy balance sheets – are trading at their lowest valuations in years.
Just as you’d celebrate if your favorite car went on sale, this is the moment to lean in, not retreat.
This is easier said than done, of course.
Emotionally, market downturns feel awful.
The instinct to flee to safety is strong.
That’s what makes investing hard.
It’s not a test of intelligence. It’s a test of temperament.
The investors who come out ahead are the ones who don’t let volatility shake their long-term view.
They keep buying the “hamburgers” while they’re cheap.
They know that timing the market rarely works – but time in the market almost always does.
If you’ve got money on the sidelines ready to invest, remember Buffett’s quiz.
…And try to answer it the right way.
Because the greatest advantage an investor can have isn't perfect timing. It's the ability to think long term when others can't.
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