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Buy Alert – Extremely Rare 5X Return Opportunity

Posted February 19, 2025

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

Buy Alert – Extremely Rare 5X Return Opportunity

My number one goal here at The Million Mission is to find that one stock – the asymmetric bet that could turn thousands into millions.

For me, that stock is Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), otherwise known as “Fannie Mae.”

Despite being stuck in government conservatorship for over 15 years, FNMA remains a dominant force in the U.S. mortgage market.

It generates billions in profits and could be worth multiples of its current price if privatized.

Bill Ackman and Pershing Square agree, recently laying out a case for why Fannie Mae’s release from conservatorship is inevitable – and highly profitable.

Why Fannie Mae Is a Buy Right Now

1. The Stock Is Massively Undervalued

Fannie Mae’s current market price does not reflect its true earnings power.

The company is a key pillar of the U.S. housing market, backing trillions of dollars in mortgages.

Under normal circumstances, a financial institution of this scale and profitability would command a market cap in the hundreds of billions, yet FNMA trades at a fraction of that due to the uncertainty surrounding its conservatorship.

Ackman’s analysis suggests that if Fannie Mae is allowed to retain earnings and properly recapitalize, its base case fair value could be $39 per share – representing more than a 5X return from current levels.

Again… that’s just the base case.

This kind of mispricing doesn’t happen often in the market, and for those willing to take the bet, the upside is undeniable.

2. Billions in Earnings, But No Shareholder Benefit…Yet

Even under government control, Fannie Mae has remained a profit powerhouse.

The company earns billions annually, but since the U.S. Treasury implemented the “Net Worth Sweep” in 2012, nearly all of those profits have been mandated to get paid to the government instead of shareholders.

However, this situation isn’t sustainable forever.

The original justification for the Net Worth Sweep was to prevent taxpayer losses, but Fannie Mae has long since repaid the government bailout it received during the 2008 financial crisis.

If and when shareholders regain access to FNMA’s earnings, the stock could skyrocket overnight due to being valued using market multiples.

To get a sense of how undervalued Fannie Mae currently is, the company reported over $30 billion in revenue last year and $17 billion in net income.

Yet the entire company is currently valued at just $8 billion…

3. Legal & Political Pressure Is Mounting

Pershing Square’s latest presentation highlights a crucial point: Fannie Mae will eventually leave conservatorship.

It’s not a matter of if, but when.

  • Legal battles continue to challenge the government’s claim over FNMA’s profits, and recent rulings have shown signs of favoring shareholders.
  • Political support for a resolution is growing, with many policymakers recognizing that keeping Fannie Mae under government control is unsustainable.
  • A recapitalized, independent Fannie Mae would strengthen the housing market by increasing liquidity, reducing government risk exposure, and improving mortgage accessibility.

Given the mounting legal and political momentum, investors who position themselves early stand to benefit significantly from the eventual outcome.

4. The Ultimate Asymmetric Trade

Investing in FNMA is not without risk. The stock has been a battleground for years, and government intervention remains the primary roadblock.

However, the risk-reward ratio is incredibly attractive:

  • Downside Risk: If the government drags its feet, FNMA could continue to trade at suppressed levels. But with growing legal and political pressure, this risk diminishes over time.
  • Upside Potential: If Ackman’s thesis plays out, FNMA could be worth 5 times its current price – under conservative assumptions – making it one of the most lucrative asymmetric trades available today.

For investors looking to multiply their money, opportunities like this are rare.

Final Thoughts and Action to Take

I’ve scoured the market looking for opportunities like this for years.

And I can tell you, the stock market rarely offers asymmetric opportunities like this – where a stock is fundamentally worth multiple times its current price with a clear catalyst ahead.

Bill Ackman sees the potential, and I do too.

The reward far outweighs the risk, and I’m betting big on Fannie Mae.

So here’s my official Million Mission trade – 2,500 shares of Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) trading around $7.25 per share.

Note: Buy stocks in quantities that align with your personal risk tolerance and financial situation.

While Fannie Mae offers high upside potential, it’s important to size your position responsibly.

Only invest what you’re comfortable holding through volatility and potential delays in the catalyst playing out.

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