Let's play a game.

I'm going to describe two space companies.

I'll keep their names a secret until the end.

One is currently valued over $100 billion.

The other is worth less than half that.

Based solely on their accomplishments...

Which company deserves the higher valuation?

Round 1: Launches

Company A

• More than 80 successful orbital launches.

• Over 260 satellites successfully delivered to orbit.

• A proven launch provider for commercial customers, NASA, and the U.S. government.

Company B

• Just three orbital launches.

• Fewer than 10 satellites delivered to orbit, primarily on demonstration missions.

• Still working to establish a consistent launch cadence.

Winner? Company A by a long-shot.

Round 2: Reliability

Company A

Company A has an orbital mission success rate over 95%.

This company’s last orbital mission failure was 2023.

Company B

Company B has attempted just three orbital launches.

The most recent ended in a partial failure when an AST SpaceMobile satellite wasn't inserted into its intended orbit and was de-orbited, which is a nice way of saying it fell out of the sky and burned up on re-entry.

If that wasn't enough, a recent explosion during ground testing severely damaged the company's launch infrastructure, delaying future missions for months while repairs are completed.

Winner? Company A again by a long-shot.

Round 3: Beyond Rockets

Company A

Launches are only part of the business.

The company also builds satellites, spacecraft components, solar arrays, reaction wheels, flight software, and complete space systems for customers around the world.

This company recently expanded even further by acquiring a satellite communications business that adds recurring service revenue.

Company B

The business remains heavily centered on launch vehicles and future government programs.

Many of its largest opportunities are still ahead of it – assuming the company can finally get on a consistent launch cadence.

That’s another point for Company A.

Bonus Round: High Praise from the Head of NASA

In a recent CNBC interview, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman shared a glowing outlook for Company A.

"People's nerves are up that there is going to be some volatility in the short term as [SpaceX’s] Falcon 9 winds down… This is what [Company A] has been waiting for. [Company A] has their new Neutron that's coming on… There's no doubt about the demand."

That’s a massive vote of confidence from one of the most influential people in the space economy.

Now… Time For The Reveal

So… Who is Company A?

Rocket Lab (RKLB).

And Company B?

Blue Origin.

And here's the surprising part.

Blue Origin just raised money at a $130 billion valuation.

Rocket Lab's market capitalization is under $50 billion.

Think about that.

• The company with the longer orbital launch history...

• The proven deep-space track record...

• The diversified business model...

• And recurring revenue...

Trades at a fraction of the valuation.

That doesn’t mean Blue Origin is a bad company. Not at all!

But Rocket Lab has already delivered much of what investors hope Blue Origin can deliver in the years to come.

Yet the market values it dramatically lower.

That's why I continue to believe Rocket Lab (RKLB) remains one of the most compelling investments in the commercial space industry.

Sometimes the best investment isn't the company making the biggest promises.

It's the one quietly delivering the biggest results.