Meet Don.

Don is a good friend of mine.

He invests his own money, thinks long term, and like most of us, makes the occasional investing mistake.

About two years ago, Don made a great move.

He invested roughly $25,000 to buy half a Bitcoin.

At the time, Bitcoin traded around $50,000.

Over the next year and a half, the price steadily climbed.

By October 2025, Bitcoin hit an all-time high near $126,000.

Don looked like a genius.

His $25,000 investment ballooned to roughly $63,000.

Then volatility showed up.

From the October high through this past weekend, Bitcoin got cut in half, falling all the way back to around $60,000.

And like many investors, Don’s emotions started to take over.

He watched his paper gains shrink week after week.

Wanting to protect what profits remained, Don finally sold on Friday when Bitcoin was trading around $62,000.

He walked away with about $31,000 total, netting a $6,000 gain.

That’s still a respectable 24% return.

But over that same period, the S&P 500 returned roughly 38%.

Suddenly his once-brilliant trade didn’t look quite as impressive.

Don’s thinking was simple, and it’s exactly how many investors think: sell while things are falling and buy back later at lower prices.

For a moment, it looked like the plan worked.

After Don sold, Bitcoin slipped further to $60,000.

But the drop didn’t last.

As I’m writing this Monday morning, Bitcoin is already back around $69,000.

Not a life-changing difference, but a meaningful one.

If Don had simply held, his position would now be worth roughly $34,500 instead of $31,000.

That’s another $3,500 in his pocket.

More importantly, his total return would jump from 24% to around 38% – matching the S&P 500 over the same period.

All because of just a few days.

And that brings me to a problem investors constantly run into…

Here’s the Problem with Perfect Timing

History shows us that the best returns usually happen during the worst times, right in the middle of a crash, or immediately after.

Stock market data from JP Morgan proves this point. 

From July 2004 through July 2024, investors who remained fully invested in the S&P 500 earned an annualized return of about 10.5%.

But if you missed just the 10 best days, your return fell to 6.2%.

Miss the 20 best days, and returns dropped to 3.6%.

Miss the 30 best days, and returns fell to just 1.4% annually.

Here’s the kicker: many of those “best days” happened within days – sometimes hours – of the worst ones.

In other words, if you sell after a big drop to wait for a better entry, there’s a very real chance you’ll miss the bounce when it comes.

This is exactly what happened to Don.

When I told him about this JP Morgan research, he paused.

Like most of us, he didn’t want to lose money.

But the truth is, volatility is the price you pay for long-term returns.

You don’t get the market’s long-term gains without sitting through the 10%, 20%, or even in Bitcoin’s case, the 50% drawdowns that show up from time to time.

It’s uncomfortable, but it’s normal.

Timing the market means you have to be right twice: when to get out and when to get back in.

Most investors struggle to get it right even once.

Here’s What to Do Instead

If market moves are stressing you out, it doesn’t mean you need to panic and hit the eject button.

It might mean you need to revisit your asset allocation, your cash buffer, or your time horizon.

Investing should match your real-world goals, not your real-time emotions.

As I told Don, the best course of action during rough markets is usually to stay the course, maybe even add to positions if you can.

That’s how wealth is built.

Not by dodging every downturn, but by surviving them and staying invested long enough to benefit from the rebound.

Because one day – maybe even the next day after a big drop – the market will turn.

And the people who bailed out may be watching from the sidelines, wondering how they missed it.