Every week, my inbox is full of the same question:

“Davis, what stock should I buy today?”

There’s always a sense of urgency behind it, as if waiting even one more day means missing out forever.

My guess? Too much financial media.

The constant drumbeat of CNBC, YouTube hot takes, and Twitter hype can make anyone feel like they’re falling behind.

That fear of missing out (FOMO) is powerful. But it’s also dangerous.

Investing isn’t about chasing what’s hot today.

It’s about positioning yourself where the odds of success are highest.

Unfortunately, right now the odds of success are the lowest since the dot-com boom…

Mr. Shiller Says Stocks Are EXPENSIVE

One of the best ways to measure whether the market is expensive is the Shiller P/E ratio (also known as the CAPE ratio).

Unlike the traditional price-to-earnings ratio, which looks at just one year of profits, the Shiller P/E averages the S&P 500’s earnings over the past 10 years.

That smooths out recessions, bubbles, and short-term spikes to give a clearer picture of long-term valuation.

The historical average for the Shiller P/E is around 18.

Today, it sits at 40.

The only time it’s been higher was during the dot-com bubble in 1999–2000.

And we all know how that ended…

Now, this doesn’t mean the market will crash tomorrow.

Overvalued markets can defy gravity for a long time.

But what history tells us is clear: the higher the starting valuation, the lower the future returns.

Buying when the Shiller P/E is 40 dramatically lowers your odds of compounding wealth.

But Davis! You Recommend Stocks All The Time!

You’re right.

I do recommend stocks I like long-term.

These are companies I believe can compound wealth over years, not just the next few days.

And yes, I still recommend buying them even at today’s levels because their potential stretches far beyond the current market cycle.

Here are a few of my favorites that I’ve highlighted before:

• Nvidia has cemented itself as the backbone of the AI revolution. Its chips aren’t just powering today’s boom. They’re setting the stage for decades of growth in computing.

• Uber continues to scale its global platform with autonomous vehicles and delivery services adding layers of future upside.

• Fannie Mae carries a unique catalyst. If a public offering happens, the stock could reprice sharply higher almost overnight.

So while I’m cautious about the broader market, I have no hesitation holding onto the businesses I expect will still be strong five, ten, or twenty years down the road.

So Now What Happens?

If you’re feeling that itch to buy something immediately, stop and ask yourself why.

Are you really seizing an opportunity? Or just reacting to the hype surrounding today's market?

Great investors don’t rush.

They don’t let FOMO drive their decisions.

They wait until the odds are stacked in their favor.

If you don’t already own high-quality names like Nvidia, Uber, or Fannie Mae, I still see them as worth buying today.

But go in knowing this: the market is priced at historically high levels.

And the best money in investing isn’t made by buying when everyone else is rushing in… It’s made by buying when everyone else is running away.

Let’s stay patient.