Fannie Mae (FNMA) could 10X in value… or do nothing.

That’s not an exaggeration.

That’s the reality of this stock.

For months, nobody was paying attention.

Now, Fannie Mae is back in the headlines.

After months of silence, both President Trump and Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency Bill Pulte have made public comments about the mortgage giant over the last week.

And if you’ve followed this story long enough, you know that matters.

Because this stock doesn't move on earnings reports or valuation models.

It moves on politics.

Details of My FNMA Trade – From the Beginning

If you’re unfamiliar, Fannie Mae sits at the center of the U.S. housing market.

It doesn’t actually make mortgages.

Instead, it buys mortgages from banks, packages them into mortgage-backed securities, and guarantees those loans to investors.

That process keeps money flowing through the housing system and helps make 30-year fixed-rate mortgages widely available in America.

When Fannie (and its “brother” company Freddie) went down in 2008, the U.S. government stepped in.

Regulators put them into “conservatorship” and handed them a $191 billion bailout to keep the mortgage market alive.

In return, the Treasury took nearly 80% ownership.

Shareholders got crushed, but they were never fully wiped out.

Public investors still retained ownership stakes in both companies.

Then came the controversial part.

In 2012, the government implemented the “profit sweep,” which redirected essentially all profits from Fannie and Freddie to the Treasury.

And here’s what makes the situation so unusual:

Fannie and Freddie have already paid back more than they borrowed.

Combined, the companies received about $191 billion during the bailout.

Since then, they’ve sent more than $300 billion back to the government.

Under a normal arrangement, that debt would’ve been considered fully repaid years ago.

But because conservatorship never ended, the government still controls the companies.

And that’s what makes the recent headlines so interesting.

More Attention = Higher Stock Price

Over the last week, both Trump and Bill Pulte have brought Fannie and Freddie back into the public conversation.

Pulte said the companies are now being run like “real businesses.”

That’s important because for years, one of the biggest arguments against releasing them from conservatorship was that they weren’t financially ready to stand on their own.

Today, the companies are profitable, building capital reserves, and operating far differently than they were a decade ago.

Trump also brought up taking Fannie and Freddie public again.

Specifically, he said:

“We’re thinking about taking it public, taking a little chunk out of it.”

Light on details, I know.

But with FNMA, this almost doesn’t matter.

This is an extremely headline-driven stock.

When nobody is talking about Fannie and Freddie, the stock usually drifts lower and investors lose interest.

But whenever Trump or FHFA leadership start discussing conservatorship again, the stock typically moves higher in a hurry.

This is exactly the trend that’s starting to re-emerge.

The Risk/Reward Setup

The bull case for Fannie Mae is actually pretty simple.

The government owns nearly 80% of the company.

At some point, they’ll likely want to monetize this stake.

The cleanest way to do that is through some form of release, restructuring, or IPO.

If that happens under a shareholder-friendly structure, the upside could be enormous.

In fact, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman says the stock could be a “10X opportunity.”

But investors also need to understand the risk.

This is not a normal investment.

It’s a political trade.

The government could delay action for years. They could restructure the companies in a way that hurts shareholders. Or they could choose a path that limits the upside.

This uncertainty is why the stock is so volatile in the first place.

You have to be willing to live with that volatility if you want exposure to the potential upside.

Why I Still Own Fannie Mae (FNMA)

At the end of the day, this investment comes down to asymmetry.

The stock still trades like conservatorship will last forever and shareholders will never see meaningful value unlocked.

I don’t think this is the most likely outcome.

The companies are profitable. They’re financially stronger than they’ve been in years. And now the people who actually control the situation are publicly talking about Fannie and Freddie again.

That doesn’t guarantee anything happens tomorrow.

But it does reinforce my belief that some form of release, restructuring, or monetization eventually happens.

And if it does, I think the upside could be enormous.

In my Million Mission portfolio I own 2,500 shares at $7.25/share.

If you can stomach the volatility, I suggest you own some yourself.