As we head into 2026, the market feels different.

The optimism of the past few years has faded.

Some once-dominant themes have cooled off.

Investors are approaching the new year with a lot more caution than excitement.

But shifts like this often matter more than headlines.

When sentiment cools, expectations reset.

And that’s usually when the next set of opportunities begins to take shape.

That’s why I’m sharing three predictions for 2026 that most investors aren’t prepared for.

Prediction #1: The AI Trade Rebounds in Early 2026

AI is out of favor right now.

After an incredible run, sentiment has flipped.

Investors are tired. Any negative headline gets punished. And the narrative has shifted from “infinite growth” to “bubblicious.”

But this pullback has far more to do with sentiment than fundamentals.

Demand for AI compute isn’t slowing. Data center buildouts are still moving forward. Capital spending plans across hyperscalers, enterprises, and governments remain intact and in many cases are accelerating.

The companies at the center of the AI ecosystem are still growing revenue, signing long-term contracts, and investing aggressively for the future.

What’s changed is not the businesses. It’s the mood.

But that disconnect won’t last forever.

When sentiment gets this negative while underlying demand stays strong, it often sets the stage for a rebound.

That’s why I expect the AI trade to rebound in early 2026 – not on hype, but on sentiment catching back up to strong underlying fundamentals.

Prediction #2: Autonomous Vehicles Quietly Go Commercial (Without the Hype)

This will be the year autonomous driving stops being a “demo” and starts being a utility.

You can already see the shape of it.

Waymo is currently operating robotaxi service across five U.S. cities and is planning to open service in 11 new cities in 2026 – Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami, Nashville, Orlando, San Antonio, San Diego, and Washington.

Amazon’s Zoox began offering free driverless rides to the public around the Las Vegas Strip and certain San Francisco neighborhoods.

And Tesla launched a Robotaxi-branded service in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area in 2025, with plans to expand to Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and Miami in 2026. 

Then you have the second wave: partnerships that turn autonomy into distribution.

Uber is stacking these up aggressively.

For example, Uber and Avride have announced a plan to launch robotaxis on Uber in Dallas in 2026. Uber also announced a partnership with Momenta to bring robotaxis to the Uber platform in Europe, starting with Munich in 2026.

Lyft is moving too, with Mobileye-backed robotaxis expected to launch on Lyft in Dallas in 2026.

Notice what’s happening: this isn’t one company “winning.”

It’s a messy rollout across cities, partners, and platforms.

Exactly like the early days of rideshare itself.

The biggest surprise of 2026 won’t be that AVs exist.

It’ll be how often normal people start using them… without thinking twice.

Prediction #3: The Thing Nobody Sees Coming

If you’re waiting for the next big market shock to show up in GDP numbers or unemployment data, you’re probably looking in the wrong place.

Recent history makes this clear.

In 2025, the big market shock was Trump’s tariff scare.

In 2024, global markets were rattled by the unraveling of the Japanese carry trade.

In 2023, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed almost overnight, sending shockwaves through the financial system.

They weren’t classic recessions.

These were one-off events that nobody saw coming in advance.

That’s my expectation for 2026.

The next real shock won’t come from a tidy economic slowdown that everyone can model.

It will come from something exogenous: a Trump tweet, China drama, a tech breakthrough, or a place investors weren’t watching closely enough.

When that happens, a sharp 10–20% selloff in a matter of weeks wouldn’t be unusual at all.

But history also tells us something important.

These shock-driven drawdowns tend to burn hot and burn out quickly.

They’re emotional, not structural.

And just like the tariff scare, the carry trade unwind, and the SVB collapse before it, the recovery is often just as fast as the drop.

That’s why moments like these don’t usually end bull markets.

They create V-shaped buying opportunities for investors who stay calm, keep cash ready, and understand the difference between a shock and a real economic breakdown.

That’s how I’m thinking about 2026.

Let’s see how these predictions pan out.