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Musk’s $1 Trillion Myth – Here’s the Truth

Posted November 07, 2025

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

Musk’s $1 Trillion Myth – Here’s the Truth

If you only read the headlines, you might think Tesla’s board just handed Elon Musk $1 trillion out of thin air.

“Corporate greed at its finest.”

“Who needs a trillion dollars?”

It’s an easy story to tell and an easier one to get wrong.

I’m not even a Musk fanboy.

I’ve said before that Tesla stock would probably trade around $50 if it weren’t for him.

But someone needs to set the record straight.

This is not a $1 trillion payday.

It’s a performance-based plan tied to some of the hardest business goals ever set.

Musk Wants Control… Not Cash

Elon Musk didn’t ask Tesla for $1 trillion worth of stock.

What he asked for was 25% of the company’s voting power.

That level of influence matters to him.

Right now, Musk controls about 15% of Tesla shares.

The exact number is unclear because of a court battle over his previous compensation plan.

But his goal is simple: he wants enough control to guide Tesla’s long-term mission in AI, robotics, and autonomy without being overruled by short-term investors or activists.

As Musk put it on the company’s last earnings call:

“If we build this robot army, do I have at least a strong influence over that robot army? I don’t feel comfortable building that robot army if I don’t have at least a strong influence.”

In other words, Musk doesn’t want to spend years developing world-changing technology only to have outsiders decide how it’s used.

He also doesn’t want to get outvoted by activist shareholders or funds pushing their own agendas.

The Structure: Pay-for-Performance

Tesla’s board could have simply given him more shares to reach 25% ownership, but that’s not how compensation works at public companies.

Any award this large must be tied to measurable future performance.

Here’s what the new plan includes:

  • Musk currently owns about 15% of Tesla.
  • He could receive up to 423 million additional shares if he meets a series of performance goals, bringing him to roughly 25%.
  • The first tranche unlocks if Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap. (It’s currently around $1.5 trillion.)
  • The next nine tranches unlock in $500 billion increments, up to $6.5 trillion.
  • The final two tranches unlock in $1 trillion increments, requiring Tesla to reach an $8.5 trillion valuation for Musk to earn the full package.

There are also operational milestones:

  • 20 million vehicle deliveries (Tesla has delivered over 8 million so far)
  • 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions
  • 1 million bots delivered
  • 1 million robotaxis in operation

On the financial side, Tesla must achieve between $50 billion and $400 billion in annual adjusted profit.

For reference, last quarter’s adjusted EBITDA was $4.2 billion.

He’s got 10 years to reach these targets.

Musk has a History of Hitting Ambitious Targets

This isn’t the first time critics have called Musk’s compensation outrageous.

In 2018, Tesla approved a $56 billion pay plan that many said was impossible to achieve.

At the time, Tesla was worth around $60 billion.

The plan required it to hit $650 billion in market cap and meet a dozen operational goals.

By 2021, Musk had achieved every one of them.

Tesla crossed $1 trillion in value, shareholders saw enormous gains, and the same plan that was called “greedy” turned into one of the most successful incentive structures in corporate history.

This new package works the same way.

If Musk fails, he earns nothing.

If he succeeds, Tesla shareholders win several times over.

That is not greed. That is alignment.

The headlines calling this a “$1 trillion payday” miss the point.

It’s not about how much Elon Musk might earn.

It’s about what Tesla will have to achieve for him to earn it.

If he wins, shareholders win bigger. If he loses, they lose nothing.

That is the real story.

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