Posted January 03, 2025
By Davis Wilson
My Response: Nvidia’s Trillion-Dollar Crash
Enrique Abeyta just predicted Nvidia (NVDA) will lose $1 trillion in market value during 2025.
Even more surprising, he predicted it will likely happen in one single day.
You can watch his 3-minute presentation here.
He laid out this prediction at our Internal Strategy Session in Baltimore recently.
Enrique’s argument is based on two key ideas:
- First, many industries tied to transformative technologies – like railroads and telecommunications – experienced over-investment in their early stages. While these sectors ultimately became vital and highly profitable, they endured sharp corrections along the way. AI could be next.
- Second, Nvidia wouldn’t need a catastrophic failure to lose significant value. A smaller-than-expected revenue growth rate (say, 65% instead of 82%) or a temporary slowdown in chip orders from major customers like Microsoft, Meta, or Amazon could easily spark a sharp sell-off.
Both points are very reasonable, and believe it or not, I agree with them. Investors tend to overreact during hype cycles, and the market often punishes even minor disappointments.
However, where Enrique and I might differ is on what to do if Nvidia’s valuation takes such a hit.
As an Nvidia bull, I actually welcome the idea of a significant pullback.
My entire investment strategy here in The Million Mission focuses on buying high-quality companies during moments of market panic.
[Note: Nvidia is at the top of my high-quality watchlist, alongside Meta Platforms, Uber Technologies, and Rocket Lab.]
To better illustrate my strategy, let’s revisit the market sell-off in July-August 2024.
Back then, fears surrounding the Federal Reserve and the unwinding of a Japanese Yen carry trade sent markets into a tailspin.
Nvidia’s stock plummeted 30%, dropping to $100.
Yet, the core story remained intact – demand for Nvidia’s products and the ongoing AI revolution showed no signs of slowing.
It wasn’t long before the stock rebounded to $130 as investors calmed down.
That’s the kind of opportunity I’m eagerly awaiting now.
If Nvidia were to lose $1 trillion in market value this year, I’d first evaluate the cause.
Is it due to a genuine threat to the business or an overblown market reaction?
If it’s the latter, it could be a fantastic opportunity to accumulate shares or call options in the AI juggernaut at a discounted price.
So yes, I agree with Enrique. A $1 trillion market cap loss for Nvidia in 2025 is entirely plausible.
But instead of panic, I see potential.
As investors, it’s not about avoiding pullbacks – it’s about navigating them wisely when they arise.
If history is any guide, moments of fear can pave the way for long-term success.
So if Nvidia stumbles in 2025, I won’t be running for the exits. I’ll be looking to place a timely trade.
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