When we started buying Northern Dynasty Minerals, the thesis was simple.

If the Pebble Project in Alaska ever moved forward, the value of one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper, gold, and molybdenum deposits could finally be unlocked.

And because the market had priced in almost no chance of development, the upside in the stock was enormous if sentiment or regulation shifted even slightly.

This was always a high-risk, high-reward bet.

And today, that risk just increased.

This week, the Department of Justice filed a legal brief defending the Environmental Protection Agency’s veto of the Pebble Project.

That veto is the primary obstacle preventing development of the mine, and the DOJ stepping in to defend it signals that the federal government is firmly backing the decision.

In practical terms, this means the roadblock preventing Pebble from being developed is becoming more entrenched.

In a press release, Northern Dynasty president and chief executive Ron Thiessen said it is “surprising” that despite the executive orders and many statements made by the Trump administration in support of Alaskan development and its critical minerals, the EPA would choose to defend the veto.

“This precedent will be used by future Democratic administrations to reverse all of the progress this administration has made with its pro-energy, pro-mining, pro-development agenda,” he stated.

Could things still change someday? Sure.

The company's case now rests on an appeal pending before the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

But the timeline just got longer and the risk just increased.

And that matters.

The Million Mission is about taking calculated swings, but it’s also about being honest when the odds shift against us.

When the original thesis weakens, I don’t sit and hope.

I reassess and redeploy capital into better opportunities.

Right now, the probability of Pebble moving forward in a reasonable time frame looks lower than when I entered the position.

That’s why I’m exiting Northern Dynasty Minerals.

While this one didn’t work out the way I hoped, I’m still selling for a strong gain.

The stock trades at $1.35 as I type, up 22% from my buy price of $1.11 in September.

Not bad for a high-risk regulatory swing.

Of course, I’ll wait to sell until readers have had ample time to act.

I’ll take the win, free up some capital, and put it to work in opportunities where the odds look stronger.

The Mission moves on.