Yesterday, Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) stormed onto the New York Stock Exchange, closing its first day of trading with a stunning 168% gain.

The surge is a clear signal: investor appetite for crypto infrastructure is still alive and kicking.

But before jumping into the frenzy, let’s walk through what Circle actually does, how it makes money, and what smart investors should watch next.

Circle’s Business: Simple, Scalable, and Extremely Profitable

Circle runs one of the cleanest, most profitable business models in crypto – and it’s surprisingly easy to understand.

At the heart of it is USDC, a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar.

It’s used by exchanges, traders, fintech apps, and DeFi protocols as a form of digital cash.

Here’s how Circle makes money, step by step:

Step 1. You give Circle dollars – Users, exchanges, and institutions deposit U.S. dollars with Circle.

Step 2. Circle gives you USDC – Circle issues USDC tokens on-chain in exchange for your dollars.

Step 3. Circle invests your dollars in safe, short-term assets – The reserves behind USDC are placed in interest-bearing instruments like:

• S. Treasuries

• Government-backed money market funds

• Overnight repo agreements

Step 4. Those reserves earn interest – Circle collects yield on its massive reserve base.

Step 5. Circle keeps the interest – Users don’t earn interest on USDC. Circle pockets the yield which is the core of its revenue engine.

This is what’s known as a “float business.” Think similar to a bank that holds deposits for a period of time and earns interest on that money.

Big Numbers, Big Opportunity

Circle earned $1.45 billion in 2023 and $1.676 billion in 2024 – almost entirely from interest on reserves.

With $60+ billion in assets now backing USDC, even a modest yield of 4–5% translates into billions in revenue.

No factories. No ad budgets. No customer acquisition. Just token issuance and reserve management.

And as the crypto economy grows, so does USDC (and Circle’s pile of interest-earning cash).

Citi expects the total stablecoin market to surge from $240 billion today to $1.6 trillion by 2030, with a bull case of $3.7 trillion if regulators play ball.

If USDC simply maintains its ~25% market share, Circle’s reserves could climb from $60 billion to $400–900 billion in this scenario.

That would unlock eye-popping earnings – without needing Circle to change a thing.

The Risk: Interest Rate Exposure

This is not a software company. This is an interest income machine.

In 2024, 99% of Circle’s revenue came from interest on reserves. Just 1% came from fees and other services.

That means Circle’s earnings are tied directly to interest rates.

Here’s what that looks like in action:

• At a 4% yield on $60.1B, Circle earns ~$2.4 billion annually.

• At a 2% yield, that drops to ~$1.2 billion – a $1.2 billion haircut.

With economic uncertainty rising and Trump campaigning aggressively for lower interest rates, that’s a real risk for Circle investors.

To diversify, Circle is launching new products like:

• USYC, a tokenized money market fund

• CPN (Circle Payments Network), for instant settlements

But these are still early-stage and not needle-movers yet.

My Take

This is one of the most elegant businesses I’ve seen in crypto – and one of the few that actually prints real cash in a regulated way.

But after a 168% day-one surge, I’m not chasing it.

The float is still small. The hype is fresh. And history shows most IPOs cool off after the fireworks fade.

Circle is absolutely on our radar – but we’ll be patient.

If the stock pulls back to a more rational valuation, it could become a high-conviction pick.

For now, just remember this:

Circle doesn’t need to reinvent finance.

It just needs crypto to keep growing.

If that happens, USDC (and Circle’s revenue) will quietly balloon.