Don't let yesterday's 28% rally fool you.

In case you missed it, Quantinuum (QNT) shares surged yesterday after the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $28 million-$32 million, above Wall Street's expectation of $26.5 million.

On the surface, that's exactly what investors want to see.

Higher revenue → Higher stock price.

Except... Revenue doesn’t really matter yet for these companies. 

Earlier this year, I had the opportunity to speak with management at Quantinuum.

Around the same time, I also interviewed Dr. Pouya Dianat, the Chief Revenue Officer of Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT).

I walked away from both conversations with the same conclusion.

Quantum computing is real.

But investors are getting ahead of themselves.

Revenue Isn’t What You Think It Is…

When investors see $28 million-$32 million in annual revenue, it's easy to assume businesses are rapidly adopting quantum computing.

But that's not what's happening.

Much of today's revenue comes from early adopters, research institutions, and organizations that want to stay up to date on new technologies.

These organizations aren't replacing data centers with quantum computers.

• They're running experiments.

• Testing algorithms.

• Learning how the technology works.

• Preparing for a future when quantum becomes commercially viable.

The same thing happened in the early days of the internet.

Prior to the internet boom, universities were some of the biggest users because researchers recognized the technology's potential long before it was ready for mass adoption.

Quantum computing feels very similar today.

The technology is real.

But widespread commercialization is still years away.

Quantum Is a 2030s Story

One question I asked Dr. Dianat was whether quantum computing can solve real-world problems today.

His answer was yes.

But with important limits.

Today's quantum systems can solve certain specialized problems, particularly in research and simulation, but widespread commercial use is still years away.

In fact, when I asked him about the timeline, he pointed toward the 2030s for broad commercialization.

That's a long time in stock market terms.

Between now and then we'll likely see recessions, geopolitical shocks, bear markets, and entirely new investment themes compete for investors' attention.

Here’s My Take

The difference between a few million dollars in revenue next year isn't going to determine who wins the quantum race.

What matters is whether the technology continues to mature.

• Can these companies reduce error rates?

• Can they make quantum systems more reliable?

• Can they build machines that businesses actually want to use every day?

These are the milestones I'll be watching.

Revenue will follow eventually.

But this is why I don’t feel any urgency to chase yesterday's 28% rally.

I remain bullish on quantum computing.

But I also expect years of excitement…

Years of disappointment…

And plenty of opportunities to buy these stocks at more attractive prices.