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SMASH or TRASH: AMD, XRP, BRK, LITE…

Posted June 16, 2025

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

SMASH or TRASH: AMD, XRP, BRK, LITE…

Welcome to the new regular feature where we cut through the noise and get straight to the point: SMASH, TRASH, or STASH.

  • SMASH the Buy button → Strong Buy / High-Conviction Stock
  • TRASH that stock → Hard Pass / Avoid for now
  • STASH that stock on the watchlist → Keep on watchlist / Not ready yet but worth tracking

Think of this as your fast-paced, no-fluff stock rundown where I’ll quickly call out which names are heating up and deserve a smash, which ones are crashing and ready to trash, and which still have enough promise to stash away for now.

No lengthy reports, no endless charts – just clear, concise calls to help you navigate the market’s madness.

Let’s jump in.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) – TRASH

Let’s be honest: if you’re betting on the AI revolution, why settle for the second-best chipmaker?

AMD is a fine company with a real place in the AI ecosystem. But right now, you’re paying 84x earnings for that privilege.

Nvidia, on the other hand, has higher quality products, greater demand, a wider moat, and a cheaper valuation. That’s the exact opposite of what should be happening.

On top of that, AMD’s earnings estimates continue to be revised lower, which is a red flag in a bull market for semis.

Sure, AMD will likely ride the AI wave to some degree over the next decade. But if I have to pick between two AI players – and one is better, cheaper, and more dominant – I know where I’m putting my money.

If you want AI exposure, smash the Buy button on NVDA instead.

XRP (Ripple) – SMASH the Buy Button

Ripple keeps inching forward with partnerships and legal wins. But as we know, in crypto, that rarely moves the needle.

XRP, like most crypto assets, doesn’t trade on fundamentals. It trades on momentum, narrative, and the hope of catching a wave that turns into real money.

If XRP starts running again, it probably won’t be because of a breakthrough use case – but because people see it moving and pile in.

That might sound cynical, but that’s just how these assets behave: wealth creation drives attention, and attention drives capital.

That’s why I recommend having a deliberate allocation to crypto – with Bitcoin and Ethereum as your core, and XRP in the second tier.

Not because I’m convinced these tokens will reshape the financial system, but because a few might. And when they move, they tend to move fast.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) – TRASH

This might be a controversial take – and as someone who’s long admired Warren Buffett, it’s not easy to say – but it’s time to be honest: Berkshire Hathaway’s best days are probably in the rearview mirror.

For decades, Buffett’s public stock picks drove most of the company’s returns.

But since the financial crisis, Berkshire has poured over $100 billion into private business acquisitions (BNSF Railway, H.J. Heinz, Dominion Energy, and others) and almost none of them have outperformed the market.

In fact, they’ve significantly underperformed, with over $25 billion in write-offs.

Berkshire now holds nearly $350 billion in cash, and new CEO Greg Abel is expected to be more aggressive with acquisitions.

But given his two-decade track record, that’s not exactly encouraging.

Meanwhile, the stock trades at a 70% premium to book value – the "Buffett premium."

What happens when Buffett is no longer involved? Will investors still show up to Omaha to hear Abel talk utilities? I’m skeptical.

Berkshire’s historical performance is unmatched. But the next era doesn’t look nearly as promising.

Lumentum Holdings (LITE) – SMASH the Buy Button

Lumentum is the kind of under-the-radar, high-upside stock that I love to find. The company has two core businesses.

First, Cloud & Networking: they make fiber-optic components like transceivers and switches used in data centers, telecom, and AI infrastructure – basically the backbone of modern digital connectivity.

Second, Industrial Tech: they produce lasers used in everything from semiconductor manufacturing to LiDAR, EV batteries, solar panels, and more.

Both segments are riding secular growth waves.

Even better? This is a high-growth company with earnings expected to jump 95% this year and 105% next year. And those estimates are trending higher despite macro uncertainty and tariff noise.

Yet the stock trades at just 3x revenue. That’s absurdly cheap for a company with this much potential.

If you want exposure to the infrastructure behind AI, EVs, and industrial automation – LITE is a high growth stock at a low price.

Blade Air Mobility (BLDE) – STASH on the Watchlist

Blade Air Mobility is one of the more futuristic companies on the market today.

The business operates in two segments: medical and passenger.

The medical side is already real and profitable – they transport organs, teams, and medical supplies across the U.S. via helicopters and jets. It’s a niche business with strong logistics value.

But the future growth story – and what gets investors excited – is urban air mobility: the idea of flying taxis and electric short-hop flights in cities. That’s still years away.

Aircraft technology and regulatory frameworks just aren’t there yet.

That said, Blade is early and well-positioned for when the time comes.

So how should you approach a stock like this? You stash it.

There will be plenty of noise between now and the point where this vision becomes reality – macro worries, rate shocks, speculative selloffs.

That’s when you want to pounce.

For now, keep Blade on the watchlist and look to buy big on weakness.

Have a Stock or Crypto You Want Covered?

Send me an email at AskDavis@paradigmpressgroup.com with your pick.

No filters. No fluff.

Just real analysis from someone who watches markets every single day.

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