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SMASH/TRASH/STASH: Tesla, Ethereum and First Solar

Posted June 04, 2025

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

SMASH/TRASH/STASH: Tesla, Ethereum and First Solar

My favorite part of this newsletter is hearing directly from you.

Every week, readers ask:

“Davis, is [Insert stock or crypto] a BUY or a SELL?”

So today, I’m launching something new.

I’m calling it SMASH, TRASH, or STASH.

  • SMASH the Buy button → Strong Buy / High-Conviction Stock
  • TRASH that stock → Hard Pass / Avoid for now
  • STASH that stock on the watchlist → Keep on watchlist / Not ready yet but worth tracking

It’s my own version of Jim Cramer’s Lightning Round – but with fewer sound effects and more substance.

Real answers. Real conviction. Straight to your inbox.

Let’s get into it.

First Solar (FSLR) — SMASH the Buy Button

This stock’s chart looks rough.

It’s been all over the place and momentum is weak right now.

But the valuation tells a very different story.

First Solar is trading at just 13x earnings.

That’s cheap in any market – but especially cheap for a company that’s expected to grow earnings by 27% this year and 57% next year.

That’s Nvidia-like growth at a “value stock” multiple.

Yes, estimates have come down a bit. But I believe a lot of that downside is already priced in.

And from here, the upside potential far outweighs the risk.

This is a high-growth business riding the tailwinds of reshoring, green energy mandates, and U.S. manufacturing policy.

Once sentiment shifts, I expect a powerful re-rating.

I’m a buyer here – despite what the chart says.

Tesla (TSLA) — TRASH

I get why this name excites people. EVs, robots, AI, autonomy... it’s all there.

But here’s the reality: Tesla has over-promised and under-delivered – especially when it comes to Full Self-Driving and robotaxis.

Elon promised a self-driving fleet by 2020. It’s now 2025. Waymo is already offering real autonomous rides – I've taken many here in Austin.

Tesla? They might test 10 robotaxis this summer.

That’s not leadership. That’s falling behind.

Meanwhile, the core auto business is weakening, and the stock still trades as if robotaxis and Optimus robots are imminent industry disruptors. They're not. Not yet.

Too much hype, not enough delivery. I’m out.

Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) — SMASH the Buy Button

If you like boring businesses that quietly compound wealth, Brookfield is your friend.

They’re investing in infrastructure the world actually needs: data centers, renewables, and utilities.

The fee-based model is clean, predictable, and scalable.

It’s not a stock fit for The Million Mission as it doesn’t have that 10x potential I’m looking for.

But it might 3x over the next decade while you sleep… all while paying a 3% dividend.

If you’re thinking long-term, buy it. Tuck it away. Revisit in 2030.

Ethereum (ETH) — SMASH the Buy Button

Ethereum is finally starting to catch up with Bitcoin.

Over the past month, ETH is up 41% while Bitcoin has gained just 9%.

That kind of relative strength is worth paying attention to.

But let’s get something straight: Ethereum’s rally isn’t just about the recent Pectra upgrade.

That narrative is nice – it improves fees, UX, and scalability – but it’s not the real driver.

Ethereum is rallying because people remember it creates wealth. It has a track record of minting millionaires.

That’s what matters in crypto: narrative, momentum, and the ability to attract capital.

And like it or not, Ethereum still owns mindshare.

It’s the default for smart contracts and tokenization – even if it’s not the fastest or cheapest anymore.

I don’t own ETH because I believe it will reshape global finance (though maybe it will). I own it because it behaves like an outlier – and outliers move the needle in a portfolio like mine.

Buy some and forget it. Not because it’s guaranteed, but because the upside is asymmetric.

Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) — STASH on the Watchlist

Astera Labs is a growth story. No doubt about that.

Their tech sits at the heart of AI data centers – acting like the high-speed plumbing that keeps all the powerful chips talking to each other.

Demand is strong, revenue is surging, and they’re expanding beyond Nvidia into custom AI systems and general-purpose servers.

That’s a bullish backdrop.

But here’s the catch: the valuation is sky-high.

At over 70x earnings and 250x forward free cash flow, Astera Labs is priced for near-perfect execution.

And while the company is growing fast, its revenue base is still relatively small – not yet fully annualizing $1 billion.

It’s also worth noting that ALAB is a hardware company, not software.

Once customers install the gear, they may not need to re-up for years.

That said, I do like the balance sheet. No debt and over $920 million in cash and marketable securities.

That’s a rare position of strength.

Verdict: I’m cautiously bullish. The story is strong, but the bar is high.

This one deserves a spot on our radar.

Have a Stock or Crypto You Want Covered?

Send me an email at AskDavis@paradigmpressgroup.com with your pick.

No filters. No fluff.

Just real analysis from someone who’s in the arena every day.

And if you enjoyed this format – let me know!

I’ll make it a regular feature.

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