
Posted May 26, 2025
By Davis Wilson
STALL WARNING: 3 Key Indicators to Watch
The first time I flew solo, I learned a lesson I’ll never forget:
You can’t fixate on just one gauge.
Altitude might look fine – but if you’re bleeding airspeed, you’re in trouble.
Nail your heading but ignore your descent rate? Same deal.
Flying demands constant cross-checking and quick decisions.
Investing works the same way.
If you rely on one metric – like valuation – and ignore the rest, you might miss critical shifts in market behavior.
Too many investors get tunnel vision. They obsess over hype, one earnings report, or a single valuation ratio.
But the best investors, like the best pilots, scan the full dashboard.
That’s how you stay in control – and make high-conviction decisions when it matters most.
Today, I’ll walk you through the three key “instruments” I use to navigate the market. Not just to survive – but to fly with confidence.
Piecing the Instrument Puzzle Together
I’ve been taking flying lessons at my local airport – something I’ve dreamed of for years.
Not because I’m looking to change careers. I just love aviation. A few of my family members are pilots, and I’ve always been drawn to the sky.
But once I got in the cockpit, I realized how much there is to track.
Just look at all the dials and indicators in the basic trainer plane I’ve been flying:
When I asked my instructor which gauge mattered most, he laughed:
“It depends. Landing? Watch your airspeed and descent. Takeoff? Monitor oil pressure and temperature. Limited visibility? Keep an eye on your attitude indicator.”
Each gauge is a puzzle piece. No single dial tells the full story – but together, they give you a real-time readout of how the plane is performing.
That’s exactly how investing works.
No single number gives you all the answers. But if you understand how they fit together, you’ll gain a far clearer view of what’s really happening in the market – and more confidence in your portfolio decisions.
My Three Go-To Market Instruments
Valuation Multiples vs. Peers and the Market
Just like your altitude tells you how close you are to the ground, valuation multiples tell you how close a stock is to being overpriced.
But I never look at P/E or EV/EBITDA in isolation. I always ask:
- How does this stock trade relative to its own history?
- How does it compare to sector peers?
- Is it cheaper or richer than the broader market?
If a high-quality tech stock is trading at a discount to peers – and nothing fundamental has changed – my ears perk up.
This is how I spotted Meta when it was trading at a single-digit multiple in 2022. And Alphabet more recently, when it was cheaper than the S&P despite massive upside from AI, Waymo, and YouTube.
EPS Estimates and Revisions
Earnings are your engine. If they sputter, the whole thing goes down.
Wall Street gets plenty wrong – but earnings estimate revisions remain one of the most predictive forces in the market.
When estimates are revised higher quarter after quarter, it’s usually a sign that demand is strong, execution is solid, and management is outperforming expectations.
Momentum often starts here – long before it shows up in the chart.
On the flip side, declining EPS trends – especially when ignored by the market – are a red flag.
To track EPS revisions, check out the “Analysis” tab on Yahoo! Finance for free.
Price Action vs. News (Sentiment Divergence)
This is my version of the attitude indicator – it tells me which way sentiment is leaning.
If the macro outlook is cloudy or earnings season is mixed, price action becomes the clearest signal.
One of my favorite setups? When a stock absorbs bad news and refuses to drop.
That tells you the selling is exhausted – and buyers are quietly stepping in.
That was Nvidia in early 2023. And I’m seeing similar behavior right now in names like Amazon and Uber.
On the other hand, if good news leads to selling? That’s a stall warning.
Final Approach
Flying taught me something that applies directly to investing:
You need multiple instruments to stay in control.
The market is always shifting. No single indicator works forever.
But if you consistently monitor valuation, earnings power, and price behavior – you’ll have the altitude, airspeed, and heading you need to make smart, confident moves.
And yes… just like in the cockpit, it takes some practice.
But trust me – the view is worth it.
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