Making specific predictions in the stock market is usually a terrible idea.

Nobody knows where a stock will trade tomorrow, next week, or next month.

So take what I’m about to say with a grain of salt.

The chart below is my best guess for how the next year unfolds after SpaceX goes public.

Will every squiggle be correct?

Of course not.

But I think the broad sequence of events has a surprisingly good chance of playing out.

Why?

Because we've seen this movie before.

Initial IPO hype → Insiders sell → Retail investors sell and lose interest → Institutions start buying → Retail investors get back in… late.

The stocks change.

The industries change.

But human behavior doesn't.

Phase #1: IPO Hype

SpaceX is the most anticipated IPO in history.

Demand for shares is enormous.

In fact, reports indicate the IPO is 4x oversubscribed.

In other words, investors collectively requested four times more shares than SpaceX was willing to sell.

That means many investors who wanted shares won't receive any allocation at all. Others will receive only a fraction of what they requested.

And when disappointed investors rush into the open market to buy shares after trading begins, it creates a natural source of upward pressure on the stock.

As if that wasn't enough, recent rule changes at Nasdaq and MSCI allow certain mega-cap IPOs to enter major benchmarks much faster than in the past.

That means index funds will become forced buyers of SpaceX stock just 10 to 15 trading days after the IPO.

That's why I believe the "IPO Hype" phase could last longer than many investors expect.

Phase #2: Insiders Sell

Eventually, the excitement starts to fade.

And that's when the insiders show up.

Employees.

Early investors.

Venture capital firms.

For many of these shareholders, the IPO represents the first meaningful opportunity to turn paper wealth into actual cash.

SpaceX's insider lockups are structured differently than most IPOs.

Instead of a single unlock date six months after the IPO, shares are expected to be released in stages from roughly July through December.

The first major tranche could arrive around Q2 earnings season, with additional unlocks occurring throughout the fall.

In other words, rather than one giant wave of selling pressure, SpaceX could face a series of smaller waves as more insider shares become eligible for sale.

That's important because every IPO is ultimately a battle between supply and demand.

The first few weeks may be dominated by demand.

But as the year progresses, supply could become a much bigger factor.

Phase #3: Investors Lose Interest

This is the phase most investors underestimate.

After the IPO frenzy fades, SpaceX will have a problem.

Not a business problem.

An attention problem.

• The financial media will move on to the next hot story.

• The next IPO will arrive.

• The next AI breakthrough will dominate headlines.

• The next market craze will capture investors' attention.

Meanwhile, SpaceX will continue launching rockets, building out data centers, and expanding Starlink.

The company keeps making progress, but the stock doesn't.

I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX enters a prolonged "dead money" period where investors simply lose interest.

Phase #4: Institutions Buy

This is where the story gets interesting.

While retail investors are moving on, institutions will be just getting started.

Many large funds can't buy meaningful positions immediately after an IPO.

And they don’t want to buy at such inflated prices.

Instead, they wait for the hype to fade and for insider selling to run its course.

By this point, SpaceX will have reported earnings. Investors will have a better understanding of the company's growth rate, margins, and long-term prospects.

The story will no longer be driven by excitement.

It will be driven by fundamentals.

And if SpaceX continues executing, I suspect institutions will begin quietly accumulating shares.

Ironically… this will likely happen when the financial media has stopped talking about the stock and retail investors have moved on to the next shiny object.

Phase #5: Retail Buys Back In

Late… again.

I've been investing long enough to know that human nature rarely changes.

Most investors don't buy when a stock is boring.

They buy when it's exciting.

By the time retail investors become interested in SpaceX again, institutions may have already spent months accumulating shares.

The company will likely have reported several quarters of public financial results.

The stock will be well off its lows.

And suddenly everyone who ignored the stock during the "Investors Lose Interest" phase will decide they need exposure.

That's usually how it works.

People don't chase what has fallen.

They chase what has already gone up.

Let’s Revisit This in One Year

Again... this is just my best guess.

There's a decent chance I'll be wrong.

If you received shares at the IPO price, I wish you the best.

If you didn't, I suspect you'll get an opportunity to buy them at a lower price in the months ahead.

I was 50/50 on requesting shares myself.

In the end, I passed in hopes that this “playbook” pans out.

We'll see if that decision proves wise.

The funny thing is that this entire "playbook" isn't really about SpaceX.

It's about human nature.

It's about investors chasing excitement after prices have already risen and losing interest after prices have already fallen.

That's why similar patterns keep appearing over and over again.

The tickers are always different, but the underlying behavior rarely changes.