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The SpaceX IPO Trap

Posted March 13, 2026

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

The SpaceX IPO Trap

Index funds were supposed to be simple.

Buy a basket of stocks with a single click. Pay almost nothing in fees. Let the collective intelligence of millions of investors determine prices.

For decades, that worked beautifully.

But something strange is happening beneath the surface.

The rules that determine what stocks go into major indexes – and when – are starting to change.

And the timing of those changes is raising some eyebrows.

Because one company looms over the entire discussion.

SpaceX.

The Largest IPO In History

SpaceX is reportedly eying an IPO valuation between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion.

That would make a SpaceX IPO the largest in history.

It would also immediately make SpaceX the sixth-largest company in America, behind only Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon.

But this is where things get interesting.

You see, there isn’t just one stock exchange in the United States.

There are several, and they compete aggressively to win the biggest company listings.

The two most well-known are Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange.

But there are others as well, including a new exchange being built in Dallas called the Texas Stock Exchange.

Why all the competition?

It all comes down to money.

Exchanges collect listing fees. They earn trading fees every time shares change hands. They sell market data tied to those stocks.

And when a massive company lists on their exchange, trading activity can last for decades.

So if a potential $1.75 trillion company like SpaceX is preparing to go public, every exchange wants that listing.

Which means exchanges have a strong incentive to make their platform as attractive as possible.

And sometimes that can include changing the rules.

Nasdaq Is Changing Its Rules

The Nasdaq exchange is where companies list their shares and where trading happens.

The Nasdaq-100, on the other hand, is an index created and managed by Nasdaq that tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on that exchange.

What’s important to know is that being included into the Nasdaq-100 – or any large index for that matter – can be extremely beneficial to a stock.

ETFs and funds that track the index control hundreds of billions of dollars.

When you include derivatives, mutual funds, and institutional mandates benchmarked to the index, the ecosystem tied to the Nasdaq-100 represents well over a trillion dollars of capital.

When a stock enters the index, funds tracking the index don’t decide whether they want to buy it.

They have to buy it.

Automatically.

Inclusion into such an index can be a major selling point to a soon-to-IPO company choosing an exchange.

Historically, new public companies had to wait months before becoming eligible for major index inclusion.

That waiting period allowed the market to establish price discovery, build liquidity, and determine a fair valuation.

But recently, Nasdaq proposed a major change.

The proposal introduces something called a “Fast Entry” rule – seemingly to curry favor with SpaceX.

Under it, a newly listed company large enough to rank among the top members of the Nasdaq-100 could be added to the index just 15 trading days post-IPO.

Two weeks.

That means a massive SpaceX IPO could trigger billions of dollars in forced buying from passive funds almost immediately after going public.

And that’s where investors should start paying attention.

Because when a huge wave of passive money is required to buy a stock – regardless of price – it can create a powerful structural bid.

That demand can push prices higher in a hurry.

The people who benefit most from that are the early investors and insiders who already own the stock.

When lockup periods expire months later, those insiders can sell into a market supported by billions of dollars in passive demand.

Meanwhile, the buyers on the other side of those trades are often retail investors who end up buying at higher and higher prices.

None of this means SpaceX will be a bad company.

It may very well become the most valuable business in the world.

But if SpaceX does go public, you should remember something important.

You may be looking at one of the greatest companies ever built.

But you might also be looking at one of the most crowded trades in the market.

And when the biggest buyer isn’t an investor – but an index fund required to buy regardless of price – it’s usually worth being cautious about the price you pay.

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