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This Stock Just Beat Earnings – And It’s Still Cheap

Posted April 25, 2025

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

This Stock Just Beat Earnings – And It’s Still Cheap

On Monday, I published My Perfect Portfolio – five high-upside assets I believe are set to outperform over the next 3–5 years.

One of them, Alphabet (GOOG), just reported earnings… and the stock is moving higher.

But here’s the kicker: even after this strong report, Alphabet might still be the most underappreciated big tech stock on the planet.

Let’s break it down.

Alphabet’s Q1 results were stellar.

Revenue came in at $90.23 billion vs. $89.12 billion expected.

Earnings per share came in at $2.81 – blowing past the $2.01 estimate.

In response, the stock popped over 4% in after-hours trading.

But this isn’t just a short-term earnings beat story.

Alphabet’s long-term value story is still being wildly overlooked by the market.

To illustrate this, let’s apply a sum-of-the-parts framework to Alphabet.

This means we don’t look at the company as a single entity, but rather as a collection of businesses, each with its own value.

Business #1: Core Alphabet (Search, YouTube, Cloud, Ads)

This is the cash cow.

Over $300 billion in revenue last year with profit margins around 35%.

These are businesses with huge moats, global scale, and reliable cash flow.

Companies with similar profiles trade at 20–25 times earnings.

At a conservative 20x multiple, this core segment alone is worth about $2.1 trillion.

That’s more than the entire company’s current market cap.

Business #2: Waymo & DeepMind (Autonomous Driving + AI)

Let’s not forget – Waymo is already operating in cities like San Francisco, Phoenix, Austin and Los Angeles.

It’s the only autonomous ride-hailing service at commercial scale in the U.S.

Meanwhile, DeepMind remains one of the most respected and advanced AI research labs in the world.

Tesla, which still hasn’t delivered a working robotaxi, is being valued based on future autonomy dreams.

Shouldn't Waymo (which is actually operating today) deserve similar treatment?

Gene Munster thinks Waymo could be spun out by 2027–2029 and could be worth between $350 billion to $850 billion.

Let’s split the difference and say $600 billion.

Yet the market is currently assigning zero value to Waymo and DeepMind.

That’s a massive disconnect.

Business #3: Other Bets (Moonshots, Health Tech, Infrastructure)

Alphabet’s “Other Bets” division includes companies working on high-speed internet, health care innovation, and more.

These are early-stage and speculative – but not worthless.

Let’s assume a conservative $50 billion in value here.

So What’s Alphabet Really Worth?

  • Core Business: $2.1 trillion
  • Waymo & AI: $600 billion
  • Other Bets: $50 billion
  • Total Estimated Value: $2.75 trillion

Alphabet’s current market cap? Just $2 trillion.

That’s a 37.5% discount to my conservatively estimated sum-of-the-parts valuation.

And the stock is still trading at just 19x earnings – cheaper than the S&P 500, despite superior business lines, massive scale, and a fortress balance sheet.

The bottom line is Alphabet just proved it's still firing on all cylinders.

Its core business is thriving, and its moonshots are gaining real-world traction.

Yet the market continues to ignore the value of its emerging businesses – especially Waymo and AI.

That’s why GOOG remains one of my top picks, and why it’s staying locked into My Perfect Portfolio.

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