What happens when one of the most popular apps in the world disappears from American phones?

If TikTok is banned in the U.S. this Sunday, as the Supreme Court seems poised to allow, it won't just be users feeling the impact.

Behind the scenes, Million Mission favorite Meta Platforms (META) could emerge as the biggest winner, set to capture billions in ad dollars as brands look for new digital homes.

New research from eMarketer projects that Meta and Google will absorb over half of TikTok’s U.S. advertising spend if the ban goes through.

Instagram and Facebook alone are expected to capture nearly 40% of these ad dollars, with YouTube taking another 10%.

(Note: Instagram and Facebook are owned by Meta. YouTube is owned by Google/Alphabet.)

Snapchat, Pinterest, LinkedIn, and other platforms will scramble to claim a smaller portion of the pie.

How much money are we talking about?

TikTok generated $12.34 billion in U.S. ad revenue in 2024.

Analysts predict a ban could result in the platform losing 50% to 70% of that revenue, or between $6.17 billion and $8.64 billion, forcing advertisers to find new digital homes for their campaigns.

Instagram’s Reels and Facebook’s video-first features position Meta as the most natural fit for displaced advertisers.

eMarketer’s forecast suggests Instagram alone could generate between $1.41 billion and $1.90 billion in additional ad revenues, with Facebook bringing in between $1.05 billion and $1.48 billion.

Meta Platforms (META) Is Still a Top Stock of Mine

I’ve owned Meta since 2022 in my personal account and I still like the stock today.

I like it for a few reasons:

• Nearly half the world uses a social media platform owned by Meta on a daily basis. Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp collectively just reached 3.29 billion daily active people which makes Meta an essential platform for digital marketers.

• Meta continues to report fantastic growth and earnings results. Last quarter, the company beat expectations on revenue and earnings. Revenue in the third quarter jumped 19% year over year while earnings grew 35% to $15.7 billion from $11.6 billion a year earlier.

• Meta has been criticized for its spending on AI infrastructure (which primarily benefits my other favorite stock: Nvidia). However, the company has already seen tangible returns on their AI spending, and there’s more to come.

A TikTok ban would amplify Meta’s market strength, not just from the influx of ad dollars but through increased user engagement.

With TikTok users spending nearly an hour per day on the platform, platforms like Instagram and Facebook are natural beneficiaries for those seeking alternative content streams.

For investors, the opportunity is clear. Meta stands to benefit massively from the potential ban.

Couple the potential TikTok ban with Meta’s global user base, consistent earnings and growth results, and robust ad infrastructure, and this stock is an excellent long-term investment.