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Today’s Stock Market (June 30) Is a TRAP

Posted June 30, 2025

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

Today’s Stock Market (June 30) Is a TRAP

Woahhh… The S&P 500 is up 22% in under three months.

That kind of surge isn’t normal.

It’s the kind of move that turns cautious investors into aggressive buyers.

Since the bottom in April, during the peak of Trump’s latest tariff threats, the market has gone vertical.

Individual stocks have exploded:

  • Nvidia (NVDA) is up 62%
  • Meta has gained 42%
  • Palantir (PLTR) is up 68%

Those are incredible short-term gains. And if you already held those names, congrats.

But if you're just now thinking about jumping in?

I’d caution you to slow down.

Because this kind of move is exactly where FOMO does the most damage.

The Most Expensive Emotion in the Market

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) isn’t just a casual phrase investors throw around.

It’s one of the most well-documented behavioral traps in finance.

Study after study has shown that investors who chase recent winners tend to underperform.

Not because they’re wrong about the business, but because they’re late.

  • Barber and Odean (2000) analyzed tens of thousands of retail brokerage accounts. Their conclusion? Frequent trading driven by emotion, not strategy, leads to dramatically worse returns.
  • Another study by Kaniel, Saar, and Titman (2008) looked specifically at retail flows into individual stocks. They found that when individual investors pile in after a sharp move higher, those stocks tend to underperform over the following weeks.
  • And perhaps most importantly, herding behavior – the tendency to mimic what others are doing – leads to price dislocations and poor timing. That’s been shown across decades of data (Bikhchandani & Sharma, 2001).

What all of this tells us is simple: FOMO makes you a buyer at the top.

And while it feels good in the moment – like you’re part of the momentum – it rarely ends well.

The Real Opportunity Was Obvious… In Hindsight

Let’s rewind just a few months.

Back in April, sentiment was weak. The market was in a slump. Trump was making noise about tariffs. Uncertainty was high. And great companies were quietly trading at a discount.

That was the opportunity.

But of course, it didn’t feel like one at the time.

It never does.

That’s how it’s always worked. Go back over the last decade and you’ll see it clearly:

  • August 2015: China devaluation scare – followed by a quick 15% rebound.
  • December 2018: Powell panic and a sharp selloff – followed by a monster 2019 rally.
  • March 2020: COVID crash – followed by one of the strongest bull runs in history.
  • October 2022: Fed tightening peak – right before a huge multi-month rally.
  • April 2025: Tariff-driven dip – now up 22% in under three months.

Every one of those was a time of fear. Headlines were screaming “sell.”

Yet every one of them turned out to be an incredible time to buy.

Patience Pays – It Always Does

We’re not here to sprint after every rally.

We’re here to build something bigger – something that lasts.

Yes, this market move has been strong. And yes, we’ve seen some massive gains in many of the names I’ve talked about before.

But that doesn’t mean it’s time to abandon discipline.

The moment we start chasing is the moment we start losing control.

We’ve been here before. Over and over again, markets offer those who wait a better entry point.

April 2025 wasn’t unique. It was just the latest in a long line of moments when fear created opportunity.

There will be more. Of that, we can be sure.

That’s why we stay focused. That’s why we don’t flinch.

At The Million Mission, we’re tracking the companies worth owning.

We don’t need to guess. We don’t need to chase. We just need to stay patient – and when the time is right, strike with conviction.

We’re not late. We’re just early – and prepared.

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