Nvidia reports earnings tonight.

Wall Street is calling this the single most important earnings event of the quarter.

Maybe even the year.

That’s because Nvidia has become the heartbeat of the AI trade.

It makes up about 7.5% of the S&P 500, and every hyperscaler (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta) is leaning on Nvidia’s chips to power their AI ambitions.

Wall Street is expecting another monster quarter.

Expected Revenue: $45.9 billion

Expected Earnings: $1.01/share.

That’s still blistering 53% year-over-year growth stemming from Nvidia’s new Blackwell chips whose demand continues to far outstrip supply.

But here’s the thing: I don’t actually care what the headline numbers are tonight.

Beat, miss, guide high, guide low… My stance is the same.

Investors should own Nvidia no matter what.

Why?

Because I’ve been hearing the same set of worries every quarter for the last two years:

• “What if hyperscalers slow their spending?”

• “What if competition catches up?”

• “What about China restrictions?”

These arguments sound serious… until you look at reality.

There’s still a line out the door and around the block for Nvidia’s products.

Wedbush estimates demand to supply is running at 10-to-1 right now.

That’s an unbelievable statistic for a product of this scale.

Even if access to China remains limited, Nvidia can’t make chips fast enough to meet global demand.

That’s not a company facing a collapse. That’s a company with a floor under its earnings and a very bright future.

It’s easy to forget just how far Nvidia has come in two years.

Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022:

• Nvidia’s revenue is up 5x.

• Profits are up 17x.

• Its stock price is up 12x.

The company even became the first to touch a $4 trillion market cap.

And yet, if you zoom out, this AI buildout is still in its early innings.

Think about it: hyperscalers are all still increasing their capital expenditure forecasts.

• Amazon – Sees capex exceeding $118B for fiscal year 2025, significantly more than the $100B predicted towards the start of this year.

• Microsoft – Capital expenditure for the next fiscal year will top $100B, a 14% increase from the year prior.

• Alphabet – Will spend $85B in capital expenditures in 2025 – up from the $75B previously announced.

• Meta – Increased capex range from $64-72B to $66-72B.

Yes, Nvidia’s stock is expensive.

But expensive stocks can stay expensive when they have a monopoly-like position in a trillion-dollar trend.

My prediction is simple: this AI buildout continues steadily for at least the next year or more.

Nvidia will continue to command a premium multiple.

Wall Street expects Nvidia to earn $6.03/share next year. At a 50x multiple (reasonable for this kind of growth and dominance), you’ve got a $300 stock price target.

That’s where I see shares headed.

The price action tonight could be volatile… 

Nvidia’s earnings often are.

But if you’re a long-term investor, that’s just noise.

The real story hasn’t changed: Nvidia is the picks-and-shovels play of the AI gold rush.

Demand is overwhelming, supply is constrained, and the company has no real competition at scale.

My advice is the same as it’s been every quarter for the past two years: Own Nvidia.