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Urgent – About the FNMA trade

Posted February 22, 2025

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

Urgent – About the FNMA trade

If you do not see your exact question below, your question is still most likely answered within another response. (I often get multiple emails with the same question.)

So, I recommend reading these Q&As closely.

Let’s get to it!

Thank you for your awesome market commentary and analysis. I’m benefitting from it and appreciate you! Quick question, where exactly can I trade FNMA? – Press

Great question, Press. Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) is traded over-the-counter, meaning it will not be available on every brokerage platform. I know that FNMA shares are offered on Fidelity, Interactive Brokers, Charles Schwab, Ally, and E-Trade.

I am curious if you are also buying options alongside the shares for this one? If not, why? – Mike

Thanks for the question, Mike! There are no options available for over-the-counter stocks on the platforms I listed above. Typically, yes, I prefer options. However, with the long-term time horizon of this trade coupled with the fact FNMA could easily 5X, I’m happy to just own shares for a year or so.

With this opportunity and potential 5X return, do you think this can happen within your 1-year goal to a million dollars, or is this a long play? – Marli

Great question, Marli! There is no hard deadline on The Mission. In an ideal world I can find enough trading opportunities in one year to give myself a real shot at 10X-ing my initial $100,000 into $1 million. As you know, however, I’m completely at the mercy of market conditions.

The decision on Fannie Mae’s conservatorship is likely 1-2 years away, which is good enough for a high-probability outcome with plenty of momentum behind it.

When do you expect to close the FNMA position? I read that Ackman thinks an IPO won’t happen until 2026 if the government authorizes that, which would be quite a long play and outside of your plans to generate a million this year? – Tim

Yeah great question, Tim. Going along with Marli’s question above, I’m happy to hold FNMA for the next year or so and go from there. As always, I’ll be tracking news and updates along the way that will impact my time horizon (I’ll keep you posted on these through future emails, of course).

The good news is I’ve got around $50,000 of dry powder available for other opportunities. Note: I’m still holding $25,000 of Bitcoin as well.

Any thoughts on Freddie Mac (FMCC)? – Lowell

Thanks for the question, Lowell. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are very similar businesses with a few key differences. Those differences aren’t material to my investment decision. I chose Fannie because it’s the larger of the two plus it’s got greater trading volume – important for an over-the-counter stock. My conservatorship thesis, however, applies to both so the two stocks will likely continue moving together.

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