The US struck Iran over the weekend.

Before I get to the market ramifications, I’d like to acknowledge the American service members who lost their lives.

My thoughts are with their families and loved ones as this situation unfolds.

With that said, I’ll continue to focus on what I do best – figuring out the market impact of geopolitical events like this.

The stock market opened sharply lower this morning.

Oil prices are rising. Gold is catching a bid. Volatility is spiking.

In reality, this is a playbook we’ve seen many times before.

Geopolitical event → the stock market sinks → oil prices spike → eventually we rebound to new highs.

We’ve seen it repeatedly.

March 2003 – US Invasion of Iraq:

The S&P 500 fell ~5% over the first 7 trading days. Oil rose ~10-15% initially, peaking near $40/barrel. Within 16 days, however, the S&P 500 fully recovered. Within a month the index was up 8% before finishing the year 26% higher.

April 2017 – US MOAB Bomb Drop on ISIS:

The stock market dropped 1%. Brent crude rose 1%. Full recovery within 1-2 days.

January 2020 – US Drone Strike on Qasem Soleimani:

Global stocks fell 1%. Brent crude surged 3-4%. Markets rebounded within 3-5 days.

February 2022 – Russia's Invasion of Ukraine:

Global stocks sank. Brent crude surged 8-10% to over $100/barrel. Stocks bounced within 1-2 weeks before ending 2022 lower after a rough year for tech.

October 2023 – Hamas Attack on Israel:

The US stock market actually opened higher the next trading day. Brent crude jumped 4%. The S&P 500 was up 2% one week later.

January 2026 – US Captured Nicolas Maduro:

The US stock market also finished higher on the next trading day. Brent crude spiked 2%. The S&P 500 rose in the few days following the strike and has been flat since.

So… Is This Time Different?

This is the question every investor is asking this morning.

And historically, the answer has almost always been no.

Not because the headlines aren’t serious.

And not because volatility can’t get worse in the short term.

But because at the end of the day, the market runs on a few unavoidable truths.

First, earnings still matter.

• AI spending doesn’t stop because of a regime change in Iran.

• Consumers aren’t suddenly canceling subscriptions.

• And businesses aren’t postponing investments over geopolitical risks that have become increasingly common.

Second, Trump doesn’t want to tank the stock market.

He treats it like a scoreboard.

And with midterm elections on the horizon, sustained market weakness is the last thing he wants.

That doesn’t mean these moments can’t shake markets in the short term.

They absolutely can.

But these shakeouts are usually emotional first, fundamental second.

And that’s exactly why they’re so valuable for investors who know the playbook.

Geopolitical event → the stock market sinks → oil prices spike → eventually we rebound to new highs.

Today is the risk-off selling.

Pretty soon we’ll hit new highs.

It happens every time.