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Wall Street Isn’t as Smart as You Think [Charts]

Posted December 20, 2024

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

Wall Street Isn’t as Smart as You Think [Charts]

Wall Street’s top banks are doing it again, putting their reputations on the line to guess where the S&P 500 will end the new year.

Here are their predictions:

image 1

The S&P currently sits around 5,900, which means Wall Street has declared that the bull market will continue marching on!

The median S&P 500 return in 2025 is 12.4%.

If Wall Street says so, it has to be accurate… right?

Not so fast.

You see, for a bunch of ivy-leaguers who spend 24/7 looking at markets, Wall Street isn’t as smart as you think.

Just look at how they predicted 2024 would turn out:

image 2

Not so great, huh?

As of today, the actual S&P 500 return is over 24%. But all 8 banks surveyed expected the S&P 500 to return less than 10%, while 2 of them expected negative returns!

And the closest guess is still 15% away from where the S&P sits today.

Congrats, Oppenheimer Asset Management! You’re the big winner. (Or the smallest loser)

Whichever you prefer!

But why am I telling you this?

Is it because I despise the big banks and how they game the system in their favor better than you or I ever could?

Ehh.. no comment. I’m a little biased because I worked on that side of the world for a while.

I will say that the big banks do make my life a lot easier by publishing research that I use here at The Million Mission. For that I’m thankful.

The real reason I’m telling you this is because whether you think so or not, you are qualified to invest your own money in the stock market.

  • You don’t need to pay outrageous management fees to a portfolio manager who only knows you as an account number and has dozens of other accounts bigger than yours.
  • You don’t need to keep using the excuse “I don’t know how” anymore.
  • And you don’t need to buy only index funds and make the average market return. (Below average after fees)

The truth is, nobody can correctly predict every gyration in the market. Even if you’re a seasoned Wall Streeter at a bank mentioned above.

I write this newsletter to help educate you to the point where you can take control of your financial future.

2025 is shaping up to be a great year for your portfolio – not because Wall Street says so – but because you’ll be making informed decisions based on knowledge, research, and insights.

Keep reading The Million Mission where I’m striving to give you the tools to succeed.

Let’s make 2025 the year we take your investing to the next level.

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